Fitch Solutions’ unit BMI has forecast that tourist arrivals in the Philippines next year may exceed the 8.2 million visitors before the Covid-19 pandemic.

In a commentary released Monday, BMI projected a 32.6-percent increase in tourist arrivals this year to reach 6.6 million from 5 million arrivals in 2023.

“The 2024 arrivals will be at 81 percent of the pre-pandemic level in 2019 (8.2 million arrivals),” it said.

It added that with the 1.6 million visitors in the first quarter of the year, this indicates that post-pandemic recovery is underway.

“We forecast the Philippines’ arrivals to continue to increase over the remainder of our medium-term forecast period, fully recovering in 2025 as they reach 8.3 million, rising above the pre-pandemic level in 2019,” BMI said.

By 2028, the Philippines is expected to attract 9.4 million tourists, or growing by 14 percent annually from 2024 to 2028.

“We expect arrivals growth to be driven by key source markets in Asia-Pacific, North America and Europe,” BMI said.

In the first quarter of 2024, top sources of foreign visitors are South Korea, the United States, China, Japan, and Australia.

“While we have a positive outlook for Philippines’ arrivals, there are short-term risks stemming from high living costs in many markets globally, and tighter credit conditions which will weigh on consumer spending, particularly on nonessential categories such as travel,” it added. (PNA)