The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) is expecting the Philippines to be the second fastest-growing economy in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) this year and in 2026.

In its latest ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) October Update released Thursday, AMRO said the Philippines is projected to grow at an average of 5.6 percent this year, next to Vietnam, which is forecast to grow by 7.5 percent.

The projected Philippine economic growth will surpass the forecast expansion of Indonesia (5 percent), Cambodia (4.9 percent), Malaysia (4.3 percent), Thailand (2.2 percent), and Singapore (2.6 percent).

“In terms of the macro level, I think the Philippine economy actually has been performing quite well. Growth has been steady,” said AMRO Chief Economist Dong He in a virtual briefing.

For 2026, AMRO said the Philippine economy will likely grow by 5.5 percent.

AMRO, however, noted that the Philippines and other countries in the region would be affected by the higher tariffs imposed by the United States.

“So actually the forecast for 2025 and 2026, there’s a slower growth than 2024 partly because of the weaker export, just like any other countries in the region, where we expect that the impact of the US tariff is going to kick in towards the end of the year and next year,” said AMRO Group Head and Lead Economist Runchana Pongsaparn.

“But we still expect that the consumption is going to grow quite steadily, supported by the strong labor market, lower inflation, and also the still robust remittances as well. Private investment sentiment and export performance are the ones to probably moderate the growth a little bit because of the external uncertainty,” she added.

AMRO, meanwhile, is projecting the country’s inflation to settle at 1.8 percent this year and 3.2 percent in 2026. (PNA)