The country may have lower rice imports and more robust local palay (unhusked rice) production this year, the Department of Agriculture (DA) said Wednesday.

DA spokesperson Assistant Secretary Arnel de Mesa said the projected rice import of 3.8 to 4 million metric tons (MMT) will be much lower than the historic high of 4.8 million metric tons (MMT) recorded in 2024.

For the first quarter, de Mesa said the DA logged a downward trend on the import volume of rice to 804,347 MT from 1.19 MMT tallied in the same period last year.

“Iyong (The) monthly average is around 270,000 metric tons – 270,000 to 280,000 metric tons. Compared to the same period last year, na nasa mga level ng (that’s around the level of) 400,000 metric tons on a monthly basis, iyong pumapasok (that’s been entering) last year,” de Mesa said.

Besides the strong rice import recorded in 2024, he attributed the potential overall rice import drop to a more positive outlook in the country’s local palay production.

“Iyong expected nga na magandang harvest dahil wala tayong ine-expect na masyadong (We are expecting a good harvest because there’s not much of an) extreme climate conditions this year,” de Mesa said.

For 2025, de Mesa said the overall palay output may recover and even hit the 2023 level.

“Ang expected ngayon, babalik tayo sa level ng (What we expect now is we will go back to the level of) 20 million metric tons of palay harvest,” he added.

In 2024, the total local palay production plunged to 19.3 MMT due to the combined effects of the El Niño phenomenon, La Niña, a series of weather disturbances, and the eruption of Mt. Kanlaon, among others.

Besides sufficient rice import last year and a more robust local palay outlook, de Mesa also highlighted the effects of various government measures, including the setting of maximum suggested retail price for 5 percent broken imported rice and the declaration of food security emergency for rice. (PNA)